MANILA, Philippines – The weather bureau urged the public to prepare and closely monitor updates as Leon (Kong-rey) strengthened from a tropical storm into a severe tropical storm over the Philippine Sea on Monday morning, October 28.
In a press conference past 11 am on Monday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Leon now has maximum sustained winds of 95 kilometers per hour from the previous 85 km/h. Its gustiness is now up to 115 km/h from 105 km/h.
Leon “is expected to rapidly intensify throughout its passage over the Philippine Sea and may reach typhoon category within 24 hours,” or by Tuesday morning, October 29, at the latest.
“Furthermore, there is an increasing chance that Leon will reach super typhoon category during its period of closest approach to Batanes,” PAGASA also said. This period may be on Wednesday, October 30, or Thursday, October 31.
As of 10 am on Monday, the severe tropical storm was located 735 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora, or 780 kilometers east of Echague, Isabela. It accelerated, moving west at 20 km/h from 10 km/h.
The weather bureau noted the “increasing possibility” of a further westward shift in Leon’s track. Due to this, it is not ruling out landfall in Batanes, or a “close approach” to the province. But whether or not Leon hits land, it will affect parts of the country.
“As early as today, pinapayuhan natin ang ating mga kababayan na maging alerto, maghanda…. Lalong-lalo na patungo tayo sa long weekend, pag-celebrate ng Undas, na marami sa ating mga kababayan ay magbabiyahe patungong probinsiya,” said PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando, referring to the All Saints’ Day and All Souls’ Day weekend.
(As early as today, we’re advising our fellow Filipinos to be alert, to prepare. Especially since we’re heading into a long weekend to celebrate Undas, when many will be traveling to the provinces.)
PAGASA has already released a separate advisory for rain from the trough or extension of Leon, which will be affecting several provinces even as the center of the severe tropical storm remains over the sea. Here is the initial rainfall outlook for the next three days:
Monday noon, October 28, to Tuesday noon, October 29
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Antique
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cagayan, Occidental Mindoro, Negros Occidental, Palawan
Tuesday noon, October 29, to Wednesday noon, October 30
- Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Antique
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Occidental Mindoro, Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Negros Occidental, Aklan, Cavite, Palawan
Wednesday noon, October 30, to Thursday noon, October 31
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Occidental Mindoro, Cavite
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Region, Antique, Palawan, Zambales, Bataan, Batangas
Meanwhile, more areas were placed under Signal No. 1 at 11 am on Monday, which means they will have strong winds from Leon:
- Batanes
- Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
- Isabela
- Ilocos Norte
- Abra
- Apayao
- Kalinga
- eastern part of Mountain Province (Natonin, Paracelis)
- eastern part of Ifugao (Aguinaldo, Alfonso Lista)
- eastern part of Quirino (Maddela)
- northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan)
- northern part of Catanduanes (Pandan, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, Viga, Gigmoto)
The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Leon is now Signal No. 3 or 4, “especially in extreme Northern Luzon,” PAGASA said.
“The wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the severe tropical storm is bringing strong to gale-force gusts to these areas as well:
Monday, October 28
- Batangas, most of Mimaropa, most of Bicol, Visayas, most of Northern Mindanao, most of Caraga
Tuesday, October 29
- Aurora, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Camiguin
Wednesday, October 30
- Aurora, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, Northern Samar
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Leon is also expected to disrupt sea travel. In the next 24 hours, here is the outlook for coastal waters:
Up to very rough seas (travel is risky for all vessels)
- Seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands – waves up to 5.5 meters high
- Eastern seaboards of mainland Cagayan and Isabela – waves up to 5 meters high
Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)
- Northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte – waves up to 4 meters high
- Northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; northern seaboards of Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur – waves up to 3.5 meters high
- Seaboard of Aurora; eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar; remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte – waves up to 3 meters high
Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)
- Seaboard of Ilocos Sur; eastern seaboard of mainland Quezon, Camarines Sur, Eastern Samar, and Dinagat Islands – waves up to 2.5 meters high
- Remaining seaboards of the country – waves up to 2 meters high
After its potential landfall or close approach to Batanes, Leon could make landfall in the eastern coast of Taiwan on Thursday evening or early Friday morning, November 1. Taiwan is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Afterwards, Leon is expected to cross Taiwan, then turn northeast toward the East China Sea and leave PAR on Friday morning or afternoon.
Leon is the Philippines’ 12th tropical cyclone for 2024, and the second for October. – Rappler.com